Libby is probably right. Registered voters rarely change sides in a Presidential election. The Republicans need to do two things to win – first is to mobilize as much of their voter base as possible, like they did in 2004. Second is to swing as many independent voters as possible to their side. Romney has a chance at succeeding, if he does not appear too right wing. Gingrich and Santorum cannot swing the middle, as they seem to alienate anyone not on the far right. The longer those two stay in the race, the harder it will be for Mitt to switch gears to go after the moderates and get them away from Obama. The wild card is the Latino vote: they can actually swing Florida, Arizona, California, and even Texas in favor of whoever can appeal to them the most.
Libby is probably right. Registered voters rarely change sides in a Presidential election. The Republicans need to do two things to win – first is to mobilize as much of their voter base as possible, like they did in 2004. Second is to swing as many independent voters as possible to their side. Romney has a chance at succeeding, if he does not appear too right wing. Gingrich and Santorum cannot swing the middle, as they seem to alienate anyone not on the far right. The longer those two stay in the race, the harder it will be for Mitt to switch gears to go after the moderates and get them away from Obama. The wild card is the Latino vote: they can actually swing Florida, Arizona, California, and even Texas in favor of whoever can appeal to them the most.